UFC Vegas 65 Handicapping Preview

Fights

Some interesting fights to wager on, either outright or props. Couple example parlays as well. Feel better about bold examples. 

Derrick Lewis Vs. Serghei Spivak

Not going distance. Lewis not training, Spivak at a minimum trains like a professional. Lewis can always land and send Spivak into oblivion, but the most likely option is Spivak clinches and wears on him. In a 5 round fight involving grappling, Lewis will give up his neck to get out. If Lewis wins, it's not with 5 rounds of out-pointing Spivak. If this was Lewis of 4 years ago against the Spivak of now, I think "Black Beast," would find Spivak's chin through sheer activity and power. However, from the Gane fight forward Lewis has been more timid and I don't count the Daukaus fight. 

1. Fight does not go distance
2. Spivak To Win In Distance

Kennedy Nzechukwu Vs Ion Cuteleba

Ion + Not going distance. Kennedy has been improving his last 3 fights in terms of the very apparent issues: Weird boxing shell defense without the big gloves, and eating shots to fire back rather than baiting the shots and evading. That being said, he now over-corrected and keeps his hands down without the reaction time or veteran experience. Ion has been struggling of late as well, but against much tougher competition. He also finds your chin nearly every fight, it's just a matter of him leaving his out too. This should be fireworks, and Ion seems to have heavy hands and landed on better opponents. 

Example Bets

1. Ion Cuteleba ITD
2. Fight Does Not Go Distance

Chase Sherman Vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

ugly fight

Example Bets

1. Fight doesn't go distance
2. Cortes-Acosta

Andre Fialho Vs. Muslim Salikhov

Lots of unknowns. This fight can be anything from a 1-Min KO to a 15-Min control grappling clinic. I do favor Fialho, as Salikhov's last KO was 2019, and outside of that is not his game. He is also 38 and fights infrequently, whereas Fialho is 28 and fights infrequently. The fight is a pick'em right now, but I would favor Fialho aorund -185. A lot of finishing ability and tight hooks against a guy who should be falling off of a cliff soon because of Father Time. That being said, Fialho does gas himself out and Salikhov has a good tank and good grappling discipline. I don't see Fialho as a lock, but as good value. The difference between Fialho outright and Fialho ITD is big enough to lean finish as well.

Example Bets:

1. Fialho Win
2. Fialho ITD +150
3. Salikhov decision +275

Bet-Slip Using Units

So let's say the most you'd be willing to bet on a UFC event is $20, $100, $10,000, doesn't matter. Divide it by 10. Each one of those is a "unit." So everyone agrees on the value of each bet. You do not have to bet 10 units, this is the most, you would spend. I do not see a lot of value on the card, so I'm going to be betting 5 units as the following.

Spivak To Win (-200) - 1.5 units @ _____ to win ______ (1.5 original back + ______)

Kennedy Vs. Ion Does NOT go the distance - 1.5 units @ _____ to win ______ (1.5 original back + ______)

Cortes Acosta To Win - 1 Unit @ ______ to win _________ (1 Unit Back + _______)

Problematic Parlay options: 1 Unit on one or the other if you feel like gambling more than speculating.

Parlay A. Parlay the above individual plays:

-200 + -300 + -195 = +202

Parlay B. The below allows for some variance from the main bets to hedge, theoretically.

Spivak/Lewis Does NOT Go Distance(-700) + Ion Cutelaba To Win*acts as juice* (+200) + Cortes-Acosta To Win (-195) + Fialho To Win (-105) = +753 odds

Payouts: 

A. 1 Unit Example

    Final Odds: 1 Unit @ +202 = Payout 3.02, To Win 2.02 (3.02 - 1.00 = 2.02 Winnings)

        Risk Alignment - 100%

B. 1 Unit Example

    Final Odds: 1 Unit @ +753 = Payout 8.53, To Win 7.53 (8.53 - 1.00 = 7.53 Winnings)

    Risk Alignment: 50%; 25% to brick on everything, plus risk of parlay brings up to ~82%. Without factoring in literal possible outcome odds and weighting by the listed odds for each outcome, it's just a rough guess (50% + 12.5% each leg of parlay = 100% risk, but alignment with main bets only 50%. AKA Riskier overall but different risk profiles. 

TLDR: 

Main event should be sloppy. Outside of a Lewis one-hitter quitter Spivac will drown him. 

Kennedy Vs Ion: will likely be chaos. Probably 85% likely bar fight, slight chance they both get tagged and then shell up. Ion talking about how he’s not worried about his job because of his fight style signals he’s ready to kill or be killed. 

Sherman Vs Acosta: some big bois with some big finishes. Only way it’s not a fun fight is if Acosta ends up clinching with Sherman and feeling how big of an advantage he has there and chooses to control instead. 

Fialho Vs Salikhov is an aging grappler in Salikhov Vs a young major standing threat in Fialho. The big worry is Fialho not finishing early and then gassing, but I think he gets it done as long as he keeps it standing. Salikhov likes to hang around in clinch range without threatening a lot, could be Fialho’s big recurring opening.

I never will advise to actually do a parlay, but we all like to gamble now and then with money we can afford to lose for a little extra juice. 

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