UFC 282 Recap and Betting Results

UFC 282 Recap and Betting Guide Results

UFC 282 took place 12/10/22 at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV and was headlined by Jan Blachowicz taking on Magomed Ankalaev. It was a card that delivered on nearly all fronts. Excitement? Check. Finishes? Check. Close fights? Check. Even the last two fights of the night, which both ended in controversial judging rather than by finish, were technically (as in the techniques and game plans) interesting at a minimum, and the main event was a great story to see unfold. I’ll release an in-depth article this month on judging criteria using the  Official Rules of Unified MMA, to help us score the fights better ourselves. We will never be in control of the judges, but we are in control of being more informed ourselves. In the meanwhile, let’s go over the bet-slip from the preview, as well as some other stand out fights from the night.

The Bet-Slip

Bet Placed Units Odds Result Notes
Ankalaev To Win 1 -275 LOSE Notes were right. The big issue was Ankalaev waiting until rd 4 to grapple. Started using fence to takedown Jan too late. The draw is actually the right call imo, as I scored 1-3: 10-9 Jan, 4: 10-9 Ankalaev, 5: 10-8 Ankalaev. The draw rekt most bets.
Du-Plessis To Win 1 -175 WIN Notes and prediction were correct on this, down to Du Plessis and Till both gassing, but Du Plessis being a little more of a dog and much stronger. Did not expect by sub though lol
Jairzinho Rozenstruik To Win .5 -170 WIN Daukaus had the fast hands that gives Jairzinho problems, but didn't even have time to find his jab. Rozenstruik jabbed him halfway to the shadow realm a few seconds in, and finished it with a leaping straight/superman punch.
Total Bet 3 PnL +.1 Units barely scraped by, but fights played out relatively as predicted for the fights I could study a bit. Feeling good about the overall analysis accuracy as of late, and profitable overall from last 4 cards.

The Fights

Dricus Du Plessis Defeats Darren Till Round 3 @ 2:43 Via Submission (Rear Naked Choke)

Till continues his rapid downhill climb. One of his worst showings, as he was expected to lose against Brunson even if he had fought well. Du Plessis was the favorite mainly because of Till's slide and weaknesses, rather than Du Plessis taking big steps forward. Till looked afraid to fire even when Du Plessis was too tired to keep his hands up, and showed JV wrestling ability. Even when he blew his knee out, it was from trying to post on it at a bad angle and Du Plessis pulled him back over it.

Ilia Topuria Beats The Fuck Out of Bryce Mitchell and Chokes Him Round 2 @ 3:10

Topuria and Mitchell scrapped it out and Topuria lived up to the hype. Even though Mitchell got dismantled, he had success with the kicks and lead hand work. The big welt under Topuria's eye came from a wild wide hook, but was effective. Outside of those scrambles where Mitchell would land something small, Topuria was controlling the cage and landing with increasing success. Topuria laid the groundwork for limiting Bryce's abilities by kicking his legs out within the first few min. Once the kicks started accumulating, Mitchell would lift the lead leg up a bit if Topuria feinted his hips. When Mitchell does that, it leaves him open for straights up high. Topuria brutalized him with kicks and the jab, before coming in hard and close with hooks. A few times when Topuria got in close to brawl, Mitchell grabbed a leg or level-changed. Topuria got to show off his grappling as well when he sprawled repeatedly on Mitchell's good attempts. Eventually Mitchell withered and Topuria big brothered him into the cage, and onto the mat for the tap via arm triangle.


Very entertaining card with one one of the highest finish rates of the year. Unfortunately, the last two fights left bad tastes in the average consumer's mouth. The judging was arguably the worst we've ever seen on one card between the Paddy and Ankalaev fights. The event overall was a great watch, even if the stream shutdowns were in full effect. Saturday 12/17/22 bring UFC Vegas 66 to us on ESPN+ headlined by Jared Cannonier Vs Sean Strickland. My (not self-coded) breakdown will be available tomorrow night 1900 PST (-0800 UTC).

For an early preview of my Bet-Slip, be sure to subscribe to my SubStack to get everything a day early. Routinely takes an hour or so to format, hyperlink, and code full posts. SubStack is just the meat.


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